Carbon Removal Scenario Analysis
The world needs to remove billions of tonnes of CO₂ per year by mid-century. But which technologies will get us there? It depends on policy, energy costs, AI progress, and how urgently we deploy. This tool lets you explore those futures.
Why scenario analysis?
Climate scenario analysis is standard practice — governments mandate it, financial institutions use it (TCFD, NGFS), and the IPCC's Shared Socioeconomic Pathways are built on it. The logic is simple: when the future is uncertain, you don't predict — you explore the space of plausible outcomes and ask which strategies are robust across them.
Most existing scenario frameworks were built before the current AI wave. They don't account for the possibility that transformative AI could radically accelerate R&D, slash optimization costs for engineered removal, or drive energy demand through the roof. This model integrates those dynamics.
How to use this
- Pick a macro scenario — each represents a different combination of policy ambition and AI trajectory. These set the baseline parameters.
- Select technologies — toggle which carbon removal approaches to compare. Grouped by type: nature-based, engineered, hybrid, and ocean-based.
- Adjust parameters — override the scenario defaults. What if the carbon price is higher? What if R&D funding doubles? Move the sliders and watch the projections update.
- Read the results — cost trajectories, scale projections, and a feasibility score that synthesizes across dimensions.
The constraints are deliberate. Parameters are bounded to plausible ranges. Technologies can't scale past their theoretical maximums. Cost can't drop below engineering floor estimates. This isn't a sandbox — it's a structured exploration.
Macro Scenario
Technologies
Adjustable Parameters
Global carbon price floor. Drives economic viability of removal.
Multiplier on current global R&D spend for carbon removal.
Energy price multiplier vs. today. Below 1 = cheaper (renewables). Above 1 = more expensive.
How fast society scales up deployment. 'Wartime' = WWII-level mobilization.
Under "Current Trajectory": 3 technologies reach viability at $80/tCO₂, with a combined potential of 1.7 GtCO₂/yr.
Cost Trajectory ($/tCO₂)
Removal Scale (stacked)
Technology Comparison
| Technology | Cost Today | Cost 2035 | Scale 2035 | Permanence | Feasibility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Biochar | $100 | $82 | 8.8 MtCO₂/yr | 1000 yr | 57 Medium |
Enhanced Weathering | $80 | $67 (viable at current carbon price) | 200 ktCO₂/yr | 10,000+ yr | 50 Medium |
Afforestation / Reforestation | $15 | $14 (viable at current carbon price) | 1.3 GtCO₂/yr | 50 yr | 50 Medium |
BECCS | $150 | $126 | 3.1 MtCO₂/yr | 10,000+ yr | 48 Medium |
Soil Carbon Sequestration | $20 | $18 (viable at current carbon price) | 447.6 MtCO₂/yr | 30 yr | 41 Low |
Direct Air Capture (Liquid Solvent) | $400 | $291 | 720 ktCO₂/yr | 10,000+ yr | 37 Low |
Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement | $150 | $142 | 0 tCO₂/yr | 10,000+ yr | 37 Low |
Direct Air Capture (Solid Sorbent) | $600 | $546 | 10 ktCO₂/yr | 10,000+ yr | 31 Low |
Green costs indicate viability below carbon price. Feasibility score weights: cost reduction (25%), scale potential (20%), technology readiness (20%), permanence (15%), economic viability (20%).
Methodology & Assumptions
Cost projections use a simplified Wright's Law learning curve model. For each technology, cost declines as a function of cumulative deployment, modulated by the technology's learning rate. AI advances accelerate the learning rate proportionally to each tech's AI sensitivity parameter.
Scale projections follow a logistic growth model bounded by each technology's maximum theoretical capacity. Growth rate is driven by policy ambition, economic viability (carbon price vs. removal cost), R&D investment, and the user-set deployment urgency.
The feasibility score is a weighted composite of cost reduction trajectory, scale potential, technology readiness level, permanence, and economic viability at the projected carbon price. It is meant to be directional, not prescriptive.
This is an illustrative scenario analysis tool, not a prediction. Parameter values are drawn from published literature (IPCC AR6 WGIII, IEA CCUS reports, academic techno-economic assessments) but simplified for clarity. Real-world outcomes depend on factors not modeled here.